Weekly Stock Tip - for week beginning 15th April 2008

After a long pause am reviving my blog again due to popular request from friends...so lets make money again...for serious traders, we give some free calls and a lot of calls for paid clients here

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there are many more analysts working with me at this site to deliver you top quality picks.

This week, we are expecting to see action in RPL, RCOM. (Rest of the picks for paid customers :) )

RPL has broken out well and is heading towards 192 and 208 levels. It will retest 179 levels before starting its upward move again. BUY RPL around 179 levels for a target of 192 and 208.

RCOM has taken a wonderful support at 485 and is poised for a short run up. The stock is expected to touch 528.

View on NIFTY
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NIFTY is moving rangebound with a bullish bias. If it closes above 4800 levels, we may see 5000 levels in the coming week.

IVRCL

Pick up IVRCL on close above 430. First tgt is 463 and second target is 500.

This stock has formed an inverted Head and shoulder on daily charts and will move up in the short term. The above targets are short term targets.

Down for a while...

Tradeguide will be down for a while...with no updates as I am busy with bringing up this website

www.greatemoney.com.

Till then for all stock market tips reach out to

http://nsetips.blogspot.com

Fireworks ahead

Fed has cut rate by 50 basis.....markets will flare up now. I was maintaining that 4600 is coming soon....n today it comes....Many stocks will flare up. So I would give you resistance levels of some stocks so you can play with accordingly. buy above each of these levels and sq off at next resistances


ICICI bank - 932, 948, 952, 964, 974
ESCORT - 110, 113, 115, 116.7, 120
GMR - 792, 801, 813, 845
IDFC - 136.5, 138
IVR - 400, 412, 418
NDTV - 374, 378, 383, 386
SRF - 146, 150, 152, 154.6. 157.5
TELCO - 692, 711
zee - 311, 316.5, 319.5, 323.7, 328.5

Indecisive days

Markets are very indecisive extremely rangebound. Its better to wait and watch now. We are also close to 18th. The Fed decision is bound to come soon. Let us sit on the side and watch the market tomorrow. Remember there is no rule that you have to trade everyday.

The Great Wall

Its more like a continuation of yesterdays' post. Markets seem to have walls built at 4535 and 4580 just playing tetris between them. The best thing to do now is to watch and watch for the right direction. Volumes have been low in the past few days. Everyone seems to be waiting for 18th. We will also wait for 18th.

As said earlier, we will keep trading light. Reliance capital hit the roof today as suggested yesterday. The other 2 failed to take off. We will track a few stocks for tomorrow only

1. ICICI bank - Good support at 882. BUY above this level for following targets - 898, 912, 920. If ICICI breaks 882, short it for a target of 872.

2. PATNI - SHORT on break of 449. Target 442, 440. SL - 457.

Intraday calls for 13th September

Markets are getting extremely rangebound. Though we still continue to remain positive, chances are it may just go the opposite way as well. Market is giving no indications of a directional move and has been trading sideways for many days now. Its better to trade intraday in these market conditions than positional. The action is also very stock specific. We will pick up a few of these alone and keep trading light for the next few days until the direction becomes clear

1. Reliance Capital - Good momentum and upmove in this stock. BUY for a target of 1389. Stoploss 1300.

2. UTV soft - BUY above 582 for a target of 594.

3. ZEE Telefilms - Bounced from 299 levels exactly as suggested yesterday. For tomorrow, BUY above 310 for a target of 319. If it manages to close above 310, positional trades can be done for higher targets.

Market Update...

Market is still trading sideways and is not giving a clear indication of the direction it is bound to take. Volumes have been low in the past few days suggesting, a lot of money is waiting on the sidelines perhaps for the Fed decision on the 18th. Till the direction is clear, try to keep very less overnight positions. Markets are taking good support at 4470 and above level. I did write about the possible re-test of 4400 before moving up, we will have to wait and see if it can happen. The short term support can be raised to 4450 level. Once NIFTY crosses 4550 market will run above 4600 easily. This is becoming a very difficult level to break and we are time and again facing stiff resistance at 4535. If 4550 is taken out, go long with confidence.
Here are some stocks to watch for tomorrow and their levels.

1) ASHOK LEYLAND - Short on break of 36.9. Expect a good fall from here. Alternatively you can buy from here

2) PRAJ INDUSTRIES - Short on break of 210. This stock is a short term buy and is possibly forming a round bottom pattern. A highly bullish pattern in the making.

3) RCOM - Possible positive breakout above 550. First resistance at 555. Above that it will fly.

4) TISCO - Resistance at 727 and 732.

5) ZEEL - Bounce from 299 likely. On the downside, support at 285

6) INFOSYS - 1816 is crucial level. Breakdown will result in a greater fall.
All IT stocks seem to be falling relentlessly. The IT sector is currently "underweight" avoid long positions in IT stocks.

7) NDTV - If NDTV can take out 374, it will move to 377. If 377 is also taken out it will fly from there.

8) Nagarjuna construction - 222 - 225 is a good resistance zone. Buy above 225.

9) MOSER BAER - Above 319 will move up smartly.

10) TELCO - This has been an underperformer in this rally. If it breaks 688 tomorrow, it will fall until 661.

Investment Picks
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ESCORTS - ESCORTS has bottomed out well and the stock is poised to move up well in the current run. The stock is currently trading at 107 levels and should be able to reach upto 137 levels in the coming weeks. That will be a good 30% return. Time frame - 1 - 3 month

Education: Supports and Resistances

Starting this week, we will see some of the important concepts that one need to learn to be a successful trader. We will start these with an article on the concept of supports and resistances

Supports and resistances offer important clues in technical analysis to figure out when to enter a stock and when to exit one. Typically, a break of support is a bearish signal and signals that one should exit a stock. A resistance break signals that the stock is poised to move up further. While these may not be the only signals based on which, one decides to enter or exit a stock, these are 2 very important pieces of information. Lets look a little deeper into these.

A support area is typically an area where demand is more than supply, thus it "supports" the stock from any fall in price. A "resistance" is a point where the supply is more than demand and hence the stock struggles to move up further. Analysts, use past data to figure out support and resistances for a particular stock.

An important point to note here is that, when a support is broken and the stock moves down, the same spot acts as a resistance at a later rally when the stock tries to move up. The converse applies for resistance. A broken resistance level acts as a support during a later correction.

The below chart shows data of SBI over a period of time. The horizontal red line indicates a price level where the demand-supply tug of war is maximum indicating presence of a support/resistance. Note how the stock has moved drastically on either side once the level has been taken out.



Determining support and resistances
Supports and resistances can be determined by drawing lines connecting any 2 points in a price chart. The more the number of points, the more it confirms the existence of a support/resistance area. When picking up points to draw your lines, you should look for key reversal areas in the chart.

The week starting...Sep 10th 2007

The US markets got beaten badly on friday. A bad cue to start the week with. We have broken down from the broadening formation on hourly charts. As indicated in the earlier post, this is a bearish pattern. Important NIFTY levels to watch out for 4470, 4460, 4400, 4350. We should have a gap down opening on monday. Its better to play the wait and watch game. The short term trend is still up. The volatility still doesnt seem to be dying down. Expect a bounce from one of these levels on monday. If these are broken decisively, we will be breaking away from our short term uptrend.

Play the wait and watch game on monday. We will pick up stocks as they become ripe to buy. We will wait for one day to get into the right direction. Remember there is no rule that you should trade everyday. Sometimes its better to wait it in the sidelines and watch the action.

We will stick to the following calls for 1 day only. Based on mondays' close, we will devise trading strategy for the coming days.

India cement - Short on break of 254. Target 247. Target 2 - 242

Zee - Below 298 will crash. Target 1 - 278. Minor support at 288, 281. If it manages to stay above 300 and closes here, we can buy again for coming days.

SBI - Its resting at 1616. Has looked to break 1800+. Will be interesting to see if it manages to stay near this level.

RPL - 119 - 116 is a good support range. A maximum dip of upto 110 is slightly possible. The trend is still up. Use dips to build positions in this stock.

UNION BANK - I dont expect this stock to fall below 133 tomorrow. Use gap down opening to buy at intraday lows. There is excellent support at 133. First support at 140. 135 is also the 200DMA. Buy around 133 - 135 range tomorrow for intraday.

Data on institutional trade shows that even when market broke down from the trading channel, FIIs were net buyers over the past few days. Strongly suggesting, that the trend is still up. Do some bottom fishing on monday. NIFTY can dip upto 4400 or slightly below and bounce back.

If you need advise on some specific stock, leave your mail ID and a message, I will get back to you with my analysis.

The week ended...Sep 7th 2007

Last week was excellent. The following is the follow up to last weeks' calls.

Arvind mill - Crossed both targets
Ashok Leyland - Not enough momentum, but target 1 still crossed
Escorts - Target 2 achieved
IDFC - we gave a target of 137, it reached 136. Good profits here too
TCS - No trade. Could not break 1075 decisively.
Reliance communication - While the level 544 was breached, hardly any momentum to reach 555. However made a mid-week high of 550
SBI - Broke 1617 and raced to 1653. But market pulled it down on friday. Nevertheless, it was profit for the week and it has closed exactly at out level of 1617 for the week.
Tata motors - Stop Loss triggered.
Zee Telefilms - Target 2 achieved
IFCI - Target achieved on day one itself
SRF - Target given 145-150. Reached a high of 147 on friday.
IVRCL - Broke 400 as given, but came back to 390 levels.
CIPLA - Not enough mometum, but it went to 187 straight from 181, we booked a profit of 6rs per lot.
IDBI - For those picked up at 130, it was an excellent week. It moved up till 140. We are still positive on this counter and has the potential to break 150 soon.

Overall it was a fantastic week to cherish. Hope you all made good money.

Market Update

NIFTY broke out in the final hour of trading today and is now well poised to move up to 4600+. The last barrier comes in at 4330 levels. Once taken out, we will be going up full throttle.

SBI has broken out the level that I had specified earlier precisely. Its not headed towards 1750 - 1800. Go long and hold for a week.

IFCI has had a bounce of the trendline. If it can takeout 71, it will move upto 77.

SAIL is poised for a good upmove now.

Arvind mill if breaks 54.5 will target 56.2 and 57+.

Watch TELCO, it has been unable to the 712 level that we have specified so far. If it breaks 712, it will fly. I would recommend a buy around 714 - 715 (2 - 3 rs for breakout confirmation).

Tomorrow I am expecting a positive day. We have made good money this week with all the below calls. Hoping to sign the week off in style. Watch out the space on sunday for more updates with stocks information and my picks for the next week....

Mid-week picks...

Charts favour IDBI to move upto 150 levels from the current 130 levels in 1 - 2 weeks time period. Keep this in portfolio and hold for a week to benefit from it.

CIPLA has broken out today 4th September from its trading channel. The volumes have been phenomenal...infact it has recorded the second highest volume in the past 2 years. I feel the stock has given a good breakout and is poised for upmove now. Immediate resistances exist near 181, 191 and 200. Wait for one more day and pick up this stock for short term if the trend continues.

IVRCL Infrastructure is bullish and is set to break the 400 barrier soon. Go long and hold for 1 - 2 weeks.

Follow-up on the calls...

We had a super duper day...Arvind Mills, IFCI and ZEE telefilms already achieved our targets. Continue to remain long in these counters as demand seems very good. IFCI could head towards 77 now. Also add SRF to your portfolio, the stock has closed above an important resistance and will now move up above 145 - 150 levels.

Market Outlook and recommendations for week starting - September 03, 2007

We will start off by looking at how the American markets closed over the weekend. Its a known fact that the US markets drive most of the world markets these days. The dow crossed the short term downward trading channel and made it first attempt to move up. It has closed above the trading channel and is very close to the important 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (13495). Once this is taken out, we could well be heading to new uncharted territories. A lot depends on the Fed's important meeting on the 18th of September. If the Fed screws up on its decision on interest rate, all hell will break loose. Until then trade with confidence on the long side.

The week ahead
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NIFTY - NIFTY is the most crucial resistance zone now between 4400 and 4500. There is an important of 4470 which needs to be taken out decisively. With the recent corrections many stocks have become potential "BUYS". Also with good global cues to start the week, my opinion is we are in for another excellent week where the bulls will rule over the bears. Take long positions in NIFTY futures once 4470 is taken out in spot. Keep booking regular profits over the week. In my opinion, trade for the week, hold your positions till friday to book profits on friday, 7th of September.

The following stocks are expected to nudge up in the week ahead. I am positive on the week ahead and we will continue to remain long on these positions

Arvind Mills - View - Bullish. BUY above 48.5 target 49.5 and 51+. Stop loss 47. This stock has bottomed out in the recent times and is poised for upmove in the short term.

Ashok Leyland - View - Bullish. BUY at 38.1 target 1 - 39 target 2 - 40.5+, Stoploss - 37.
The stock has closed above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and is bullish

Escorts - View - Bullish. BUY Above 96.5 Target 104. If 106 - 108 zone is taken out this stock will fly. Stoploss 87.
Escorts has seen a spurt in buying the recent week with good volumes and there could be a slight correction before it moves up further. So trade accordingly. I am giving a deeper stoploss to wade through a slightly possible correction.

IDFC - IDFC broke out from its trading channel on friday and is heading towards 137 now. BUY with stoploss at 120. There is a minor resistance at 130. The stock seems to have gathered enough momentum to move up now.

TCS - Looking to break out from the downward move. It has been hammered in the recent past due to the rupee fluctuation. BUY On close above 1075. Targets - 1100 and then 1123.

Reliance Communication - Good resistance at 544. Move above 545 will take it to 554 first. If 554 is taken out, we could well be heading towards 600 levels. (There is a minor resistance at 560).

State Bank of India - State Bank of India is about to move up strongly. It is already in uptrend. BUY on break of 1617 and target 1700+. Stoploss 1570.

Tata motors - On an uptrend. On crossover of 712 target 750. Stoploss - 695

Zee Telefilms - Zee has crossed a crucial resistance at 301 on friday. It is now headed towards to 317+ levels. BUY and hold till end of the week. Above 317, it will head towards 324+ levels. Stoploss 300.

IFCI - Heading towards a target of 70. (May not be this week)

The week ahead will be a good week for both derivatives trading and positional buying. All stocks recommended above can be bought for a week in the derivatives segment.(Important note: Prices quoted above are spot prices). Positional buying can be made with a 2 - 3 weeks view.

Do visit the blog regularly, I would update more information during the course of the week as I feel stocks become ripe to buy or sell....