Is it time to buy??...June 06

NIFTY has almost hit all downside targets. All shorts have been exited now and I have no open positions. There was very good short covering once NIFTY hit the support at 4530 given in the post yesterday. The attached chart shows how NIFTY is obeying exactly to the lines we have drawn.(NIFTY levels are also updated in the chart). However, this doesnt seem to be fresh buying yet and only short covering as suggested by open interest change. So we will wait some more time to enter into this market to ensure that this isnt a dead cat bounce. Today inflation numbers will come out and could well be high enough to freak markets. Over the past few weeks, market has ignored these numbers, we will have to wait and see if this will happen today as well. Till then stay out of market. In the afternoon session, we may take up a few longs (very small positions). Do visit the blog again after 3 PM today. I shall try and update if there are some positions that can be taken. The following stocks are looking good for positional longs

1. RPL
2. Hindalco
3. Tata Steel
4. IFCI

I may pick up few calls or longs in these today or next week. NIFTY might open up today, do not buy till inflation numbers are out. Safe buying is only above 4800 (on a closing basis). If market slides below 4630 and closes below this level, better not to BUY at all and go with zero positions into next week.

INTRADAY
IFCI - CMP 61.1 BUY above 62.25 Target 64. SL - 61

P.S: All calls given as intraday, please try to enter only after 10:15. The first 15 minutes, market is usually traded very speculatively resulting in large price swings. It is highly probable that both targets and SL will be hit during this time. So enter into intraday positions after 10:15.

As promised...shopping list...

Here are a list of stocks that are expected to do well either due to fundamental reasons or technical reasons in the short term (1 - 3 months)

1. Reliance Petroleum
2. Bank Of India
3. Hindalco
4. Tata Steel
5. TCS
6. ICICI bank
7. Cairn

Sector wise, IT is rocking is on a good uptrend. Banking stocks have taken a beating in this fall and lot of good stocks like ICICI bank, SBI etc are available now at attractive prices. Metals, aluminium are expected to outperform market (Hindalco is my favourite here). Avoid airline stocks, automobile for sometime.

Over time as other stocks breakout, we will pick them up...Happy shopping!!!

P.S: Do leave a note if you want know about targets for these scrips.

Double digit Inflation?? June 05 2008

Fuel price hike pinches our pockets and is looking now to drive inflation towards and above the double digit mark. So there is more bad news coming in for a market which is already reeling under selling pressure. Selling will continue for today and possibly tomorrow as well. But then...see now everyone is talking about market going down lower...(including our TV analysts :) ) n when this happens you know that the end is around the corner. Yes ready your shopping list now for purchasing in this discount sale. I will try to pick up some good stocks for short term buying and post tonight and over the weekend. However do not rush into buying today itself, its still a short at rise market. Buying can come in from tomorrow or next week as market gets oversold.

I have covered 75% of all NIFTY short positions and the remaining 25% will cover today or tomorrow. I might try to flip long sometime tomorrow. Look out for the post tomorrow to get an update on views. Downside supports are here for your reference, use these levels to book profits in shorts you may hold

4530 - 4540, 4480, 4440-4450(biggest support)

While buying may come in tomorrow, the other scenario could be break of 4440 which will be disastrous for market as we might just go and hit 4000 then. (However this possibility looks bleak as of now). Lets play the waiting game and buy later.

Again play NIFTY for today as individual stocks can still move against market direction. Look at NIFTY chart, I have marked various supports for your understanding..


P.S: If you have benefited through this blog by shorting last week and holding through the fall, just leave a comment. There is nothing to lose for you, and it brings in a dose of satisfaction for all the hardwork put in :)

Short covering helps NIFTY....June 04

We had a good short covering yesterday once NIFTY bounced from the support given yesterday at 4630. Now a lot of shorts have been covered which is good for existing shorts as now fresh shorts will come as market rises. We might get news on oil price hike today as well. This is still a short at rise market and not the one for positional buying. A lot of out of the money puts have been added suggesting market could go down much lower in the times to come. Support comes at 4690 and 4630(strong one). If market shows signs of moving up do not panic, it in all likelyhood would be to shake off weak hearts from the market. 4800 will now act as a strong resistance for any upmove. Above which shorts may have a problem. As long as market stays below that level do not worry if you are short.

P.S: We booked partial shorts yesterday around 4630 levels. Holding remaining. I will add some more shorts at higher level again and hold for 4630 or below. Not posting a chart today as there is no significant change.

INTRADAY CALL
GAIL - CMP 384.7 BUY above 391 Target 405. SL - 383
RELIANCE - CMP 2406. SELL below 2397 Target 2350. SL - 2407

Cheers...we make merry as market crashes....June 03

So finally as mentioned in this column since last week, markets break 4800 and are now looking further south. CHEERS!! There aren't any positive triggers in this market. Oil price hike, news of early elections, high inflation, bad economic data in the US...the list just goes on. All these were early indicators for us. Look the NIFTY charts...even in yesterday's fall market stopped falling exactly at our trendline. Today we might have a gap down opening n open below the trendline if close is below that then we might be starting another minor trend within this major trend. All those holding short along with me since last week, hold it. I am giving major support levels for NIFTY spot watch these for possible reactions in NIFTY...4700, 4670, 4630 (a very important support), 4525 and the last big one at 4440.



For the moment avoid individual stocks and just short nifty on every rise. There is more blood to come. Shorts can hold comfortably for 4500 in NIFTY.

Investors can ready their shopping list now...there is a discount sale going on...a lot of good stocks like SBI, ICICI bank, RCOM even reliance is going to be available cheap. Be ready!!!!

Power your trade...June 02, 2008

To start with we have almost flat global cues. NIFTY has been stuck in the 4950 - 4800 for the entire last week. Today's trading range in NIFTY will be between 4809 - 5020. 4800 - 4809 is a strong support break of which will lead to panic. Market has to come out of its range and show some direction otherwise it will give us very little opportunities to trade.

INTRADAY CALLS
VIJAYA BANK - CMP 47.95. BUY above 48.2 Target 49.8. SL - 47.8
TATA STEEL - CMP 902.8 BUY above 910 Target 925, 945 SL - 898
SHIPPING CORPORATION OF INDIA (SCI) - CMP 281 BUY Target 291, 298 SL - 274
RCOM - CMP 576 BUY above 584 Target 592, 605 SL - 574


POSITIONAL
TCS - CMP 1039.15 BUY TARGET 1100