Daily market update...nov 07, 2008

Could not update blog yesterday due to network issues. As expected, market reversed the day before from the resistance given at 3240. Now all important supports are indicated in the attached chart. Yesterday was the turn of 2860 to support market. Lets see where it goes today. Hold shorts for today! Book profits towards close if market tests supports.

Market update Nov 05, 2008

Global cues are positive to begin with. Yesterday we had a good close albeit with lower volumes. For now, I will still advise to remain on sidelines. Market has staged a very fast recovery from 2200 (a 1000 point climb in nifty in 6 sessions). So there should be some pullback any moment. Carrying positional longs at this point may not be too prudent. I will look at adding small positional shorts today (this will be risky as this is against trend and we dont have a reversal signal yet). This is more in anticipation of an upcoming downmove and will be in very small quantity. (Take this short only if you are a high risk trader). Others can wait till signs of reversal comes, or if market does not reverse and continues moving up we can catch this bus later. Watch for 3200/3240 resistances in spot

NIFTY updates for Nov 04, 2008

Yesterday whole day market faced resistance for upmove at the said levels. Now more or less all the upside targets mentioned are achieved yesterday. Look at the graph on how market played as per the lines drawn. I have no views now. Next trade will be on confirmation on direction. However, I think we might have some more small upmove from here on for maybe 50-75 points and then go back below 3000 again. This is only a possibility, we should wait for confirmation to trade now. For now stay out and enjoy while market consolidates and shows some direction.

Nov 03, 2008 - How will market play out today

Posted below is the daily chart of NIFTY spot. Corrective upmove in progress from the bottom of around 2200. This is possibly a good corrective/pullback rally. On charts, as of now it looks like it will hit 3000 - 3050 levels. (watch out for some major res around 3030-3040 area). Stay long until this rally lasts.

Resumption of updates...

Its been a really long break from my blog. Work n health kept me busy with other things in life. Though I have been trading actively and making the most of the crashes we had was unable to update the blog on a regular basis. I would be resuming updates this week again...so keep watching this space.

Bloodbath...sep 16, 2008

All world markets are bleeding. Yesterday I said 4000, it was achieved in a single day. Lower targets are 3800/3600. I repeat short on every rise. Do not go long in this market yet.

NIFTY view....sep 15, 2008

We have broken the uptrendline which took us up rom 3700 levels. RSI has also broken trendline on daily charts. Stochastics indicator pointing downwards. What does this mean? Well, NIFTY is weak and market seems to be headed down. Maybe 4000 or below. Its a short on every rise market now.

Do you want to know where market is headed today...? Sep 08, 2008

The question in the title today is a no brainer. I dont need charts for today to predict market direction. NSG waiver, strong global cues, resolution of singur row.....market should open today with a big gap up. NIFTY could gain 200+ points today. On the upside watch for our resistance at 4620 - 4640 levels. Above that we can get 4700. Remember to liquidate all your longs there. The euphoria may not be too long lived. I hope you are still holding the longs recommended last week. Its a good time to book some profits.

Book some 50% longs near the 4600 level and hold rest for tomorrow. US markets might rally tonight on the back of the Fannie freddie bailout news...so possible +ve cues tomorrow as well.

NIFTY updates and thoughts...Sep 04, 2008

There is no change from the previous post. Market continues to be bullish. We may witness some profit booking in the morning session today, but all dips can be used to buy now. I am expecting market to test the recent high near 4620-4640 levels. Crude has come down well which is a big positive for the market. Inflation numbers are expected today, which if lower than last week will be another positive. The biggest threat as of now is the nuclear deal....no one can predict what will happen here. I wish this 123 agreement terms n conditions were made public so people can read and understand it for themselves if the deal is good or if we are being fooled...

Reversal of sorts...Sep 02, 2008

From a weak market...suddenly September seems to be brightening and strong. Market is looking bullish to say the least. Possible upmove now. Watch the charts for details. On daily charts see the stochastics indicator turning upwards now..on the 5 min future charts we see increasing volumes also. All pointing to bullishness. Lets see how this span...we can play the long side for sometime now. Maybe until 4600.

NIFTY view Sep 01, 2008

On friday, NIFTY went up with good volumes and also closed above a key level of 4335. It looks like market might be reversing here and taking a move up. But again, we will have to wait for confirmation here. Today we might get a confirmation, till then lets wait n watch.

NIFTY Updates..Aug 29, 2008

Expiry of August closed at month's low with decent rollovers. NIFTY sep is trading at a premium. However, the overall trend is down. Market is unable to decisively break 4400 levels for sometime now. This will be a stoploss (closing basis) for all shorts. Though market is looking weak, the stochastics indicate a slightly oversold condition on daily charts. Though, this doesn't mean market cant go down any further, its a signal to be cautious on shorts as well. I am sure you must be confused at this post today, one on hand I say its weak, stay short and other hand I say stochastics are oversold so careful in shorts. Well thats how its playing out now. Its dicey. 4200 - 4150 levels needs to be broken decisively for shorts to party. Till then hold shorts patiently, I think we will break down if not today at least next week. (Keep stoploss intact).

Market not looking good...Aug 28, 2008

Market is not at all looking good. Though its been sideways for long now, the signs are quite bad. We may have 1 - 2 up days due to expiry effect. But overall trend is very bad. I would advise not to trade long in this market. We may have a good correction very soon...a big one too...I'll try and post targets over the weekend.

Updates...Aug 22, 2008

Not been able to update blog regularly this week due to some constraints. Wanted to leave a quick note here a lot of people were asking where market is headed. Market is not looking good as of now. Gold and crude are rising back up again. If 4150 does not hold in market, we may retest this year lows or even make one more low.....I will try to post a more detailed view next week. I hope you all enjoyed shorting from 4600 levels. We are now almost at my said target of 4200. Cover shorts once and then wait for direction to initiate trade again.

Market update...Aug 14, 2008

Wedge got broken yesterday. Unable to post a chart here. Now 4500 is key level on downside. Yesterday mkt managed to stay above it. Once breaks slide will be faster. Before that a move above 4600 is also possible.

Will wedge be broken today? Aug 13, 2008

NIFTY yesterday took support at the lower trendline of the rising wedge. Today, there is a possibility that we may break down from the wedge which gives us a first target around 4400. Hold shorts...n ride the trend...

Market update Aug 12, 2008

No major change from yesterday's views. We are still within the rising wedge. Use highs to short NIFTY (positional). Best place to short will be around 4700. (will we get there???)

Rising wedge on charts...Aug 11, 2008

NIFTY is forming a rising wedge (bearish pattern) on hourly charts with a likely target of around 4200. We may open gap up today. Resistance will come at 4600 - 4630 levels . It will be interesting to see if market touches 4700 levels or perhaps even 4800 in the coming days before a good fall. For now, be cautious on all upmoves and keep a close eye on the wedge. The moment the wedge is broken, expect good correction.

Fall before the rise..aug 08, 2008

There is not much change in view since last post. Market still looks good for around 4800. But before that what we are witnessing is a small pullback rally. I have marked the 0.382 retracement on charts. As long as this is held use these dips to build positional longs and would recommend short on rise for intraday today till around 4440 levels.

Adlabs (CMP 550) as posted previously has given a nice breakout now and is looking at 580 to 600 levels in this rally.

Nice breakout on charts...Aug 06, 2008

We had a superb breakout yesterday. All of a sudden there is good news everywhere. We have very good global cues, crude is also cooling off. Technically, we broke out from the longterm down trendline. The next major resistance is the 200 DMA near 4800. Whether we will break this is something too early to predict. For now, ride with the trend, stay long and target 200 DMA. For people without charts and moving average information, I found this site, which gives moving average information for various stocks an indices.

http://stockmarketmessages.com/dma/dmaindex.htm

Stock Picks
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Bank of India (BOI)- CMP-307.75 Stock has nicely broken down yesterday and closed high. We can see good upside of upto 330+ in the coming days. This is a positional long.

Adlabs - CMP 537.5. BUY above 539. Target 553, 582

Critical period now...Aug 05, 2008

After a longtime am resuming my updates. NIFTY is in a very crucial zone now. It is near the long term reverse trendline from 6000 levels. (I am unable to upload charts today. For some reason, blogger is throwing errors when I try to upload it). Any break above 4440 will be very bullish. But market seems to be struggling now. The momentum is still sideways keeping us guessing whether it will break up or down. If it does not cross 4440 quickly and breaks down, the possibility of testing 3600 remains high. I have already picked up a 3800 put at 20 rs. If market breaks down, this should yield good returns. Else, I will simply use it to hedge my longs. But trust me its worth the risk and would recommend a similar strategy to others as well.

signs of reversal...july 25, 2008

cant type much so posting nifty chart...see how it has faced resistance

see dow chart also faced resistance...

possibility of next downward move high now...cautious in longs

Broken bones....

I had an accident and broke my hand over the weekend so will be out for couple of weeks....

Market up on short covering...July 18, 2008

Market witnessed a good rally yesterday on the back of short covering. What is important to note here is that the upmove is driven by short covering and not due to a fresh buying interest. So momentum is still down. We will continue to short this market on each rise until there is a real sign of a reversal. Today, we will see RPL charts..Stock has broken down nicely from a symmetrical triangle. One can short this for a target of 140. This is a positional short.

Today, we have positive cues to start with. The cooling crude, lesser than expected inflation, +ve world market. So we will open gap up...will we sustain a higher close??

Market views and updates for July 17, 2008

As we ride the wave down happily, lets take a look at what more is in store. Firstly the cues, global cues are positive today. Crude is down as well. So signs are good to start. We have inflation numbers being released at 5PM today. We will have a good gap up opening of around 2%. That will be good for us traders, as it is one more opportunity to short. The attached chart shows clearly how we are in the 3rd leg of the pennant. Still reiterating current downmove target around 3600 levels. So stay SHORT and add shorts at each rise will be the mantra for today.

TCS has taken a good support at 726 and has closed above this yesterday. Ths stock is also slightly oversold. One can buy this stock today for a target of 760 with a stoploss below 726

Market update july 16, 2008

Power problems at home...and I couldnt update blog on time today. Also, I dont have access to charts in office to post here. My views are unchanged. Short it is till 3600. Yesterday we broke down nicely from the flag so now the 3rd pennant is being formed with base near 3550 - 3650. Stay short(positional) and make money...

Market Update July 15, 2008

Two days back I asked people in my chat list to short nifty. We are still holding, I think we will soon reap the benefits of it. All global cues are bad today. Technically, we are forming a flag and pennant pattern on charts. I had posted about this in vfm couple of days back but did not get time to update my own blog :). Indicative target for this pattern is around 3600. I have marked the flags on the attached chart. Today we might possibly break the flag and head down. Support for NIFTY comes at 4030 and then 4000 levels. NIFTY is giving so many trading opportunities these days, I don't even feel like looking at other stocks :). Short NIFTY and enjoy!

Corrective upmove continues...July 11, 2008

In spite of very weak global cues yesterday, our market held up. Today we have a lot of data pouring in including Infosys results, inflation data and IIP data. We are looking pretty good on daily charts as well with a small uptrend in place. But on intraday charts there is a rising wedge formation which is a bearish sign. We might get a dip good dip anytime today or on Monday. So if you are long, keep booking regular profits. Resistance comes near 4180-4200 levels for today. On the downside, we have strong support at 4060 and 4030 (all spot levels)

No stock calls again for today. I hope to resume these from next week. Work is still keeping me pretty busy giving little time for markets...

Breakout!!! Will this sustain?? July 10, 2008

I think charts say everything...we have a small breakout...will this sustain? I will leave this to your thinking :)...right now maybe the long side should yield some profits...maybe the next few days...look at RSI charts as well..

Taking a small break...

Friends...work has been keeping me extremely busy over the past few days and am unable to follow markets closely. So, I will take a small break still things cool down in the office front and should probably start posting updates again tomorrow or the day after...

Volatile Day expected...July 07, 2008

Today, we will have a lot of political developments on the nuclear deal front. This could keep market volatile as new flows and rumors float around. It is best to stay out till all this is passed as we do not know which side market will swing due to these news flows. Today is a stay out day!!

Technical Watch.....the IT index after a correction seems to be taking support at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and is moving up. This is also a results season, so IT could be a good performer in this condition. Watch this index for positional buying. Upside strong resistances are at 4200 and 4300 - 4400 levels. Chart of NSEIT is uploaded for study.

Stock Watch.....Reliance Industries is constantly finding resistance at 2130 levels. For intraday traders, a break above 2130 can give a good 50 - 70 points. Keep this level handy for trading.

Is a bottom forming now?? July 04, 2008

It was another very profitable day as markets tanked and shorts yielded good profits. But happened was not a gradual sustained selling. It was sell from the word go with very heavy volumes and most of the selling was done in the first 30 mins of trade. In NIFTY fut, 5 min charts, we have 2 possible formations now 1. Descending triangle, 2. Triple bottom. Now both these need confirmation. To start with, upside resistance is at 3930 and downside at 3815 (both future levels). Break of either side, we should see good upmove. So watch for these levels and play accordingly today. We will not play stocks today and concentrate on NIFTY as market needs to first give confirmation of either more down move or an upmove. If NIFTY spot breaks 3800, next major support will be at 3720.

Dont get carried away...July 03, 2008

It paid off to hold onto the longs...I booked good profits and exited comfortably from the market. How often do we see NIFTY climbing up 5% in a single day? We had massive short covering driven rally yesterday. Broader trend is still down and there is no good news in this market so there is no need to be gung-ho and go long now in this market. I would rather short at highs now. We do have a bullish engulfing pattern on charts. However, everything needs confirmation now, uptrend/downtrend. So today wait and watch and build small shorts if possible with some hedges around 4100 levels.

STOCK PICKS
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NEYVELI LIGNITE - CMP 100.45 short on rise near 103 for targets 100.64, 96

STOCK WATCH
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ICICI Bank - CMP 621.05. Stock is approaching the trendline resistance at 635. If unable to cross short near this level with a stop loss just around 640 for target of 620 and 610. The attached image shows how icici is approaching the trendline for people interested in technical analysis

Mad Selling in market....June 02, 2008

It was absolute carnage on Dalal Street yesterday. Technically the stage was set for a bounce but market just kept going down and down after a small intraday bounce. We have a near vertical fall from 4310 to 3870. 400+ on NIFTY without any pullback. When NIFTY was out 4400, we said NIFTY will come to 4000 and then 3600. 4000 came too swiftly and then we expected bounce, but it isn't happening at all. While 3600 is now almost a high probability, bounce can still not be ruled out. I will not be playing the short side, and have still a few longs open. I will hold onto them for a while.

STOCK PICKS
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Yesterday almost all picks hit their targets, except IFCI. For today watch Infosys. Infosys has resisted the fall in this market. Rupee is depreciating and results are around the corner. CMP 1717. BUY on dips target 1732/1743.

AXIS BANK - CMP 593. BUY on dips SL - 584 Target - 610, 620

Stage set for a bounce...july 01, 2008

As we start july, we start off with some positive divergence on charts indicating a short upmove. The market has been witnessing relentless selling. In the first half yesterday, the support level given in these columns held. However, in the later half it was broken and market slided to 4020 levels and managed a close around 4040. NIFTY future has already broken the psychological 4000 mark indicating more pain is left in the system. For today however, I expect a bounce possibly upto the 4100 level. 4060 - 4075 range will now act as a resistance for upmove. On the downside 4015 - 4035 level then 3920 are major supports.

STOCK PICKS
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RELIANCE - CMP: 2095.15. BUY above 2100. Target 2115, 2135, 2150. SL - 2070

NAGARJUNA FERTILIZER - CMP: 35.05. Strong support at 34.9. If it breaks this level and stays below, short it for lower targets of 32.8, 30.9. Do not short above 34.9.

Fertilizer stocks look bearish now. A lot of run up has happened in this counter over the past few days, perhaps profit booking is on..

IFCI - CMP 37.2 , BUY on dips around 36.8 with SL at 36.5 target 38.9

STOCK WATCH
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Watch this stock Neyveli Lignite, it has broken down from a symmetrical triangle but has continuously found support at 103 levels. The day it breaks 103, it will crash heavily. Keep an eye on this counter.

Views and updates - Indian stock market June 30

NIFTY had a sharp fall on friday which was after 2 days of small upswings. Typical bear market characteristics. Rallies up are small and slow and when there is a fall, its steep and quick. Market is likely to find support near the 4000 levels. Psychologically also, this level will be important for this market. For today, we could have a sideways to mildly positive market. If we open low, we could buy nifty for intraday only. Its safer to carry over shorts in this market than longs. Longs if any should be held only on an intraday basis. Up moves will face strong resistance at 4220 level. On the downside, strong support exists at 4080 for today.

STOCK PICKS
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ICICI BANK - CMP 652.15 BUY target 674. SL - 639

For a few days its better to trade light. Positional shorts can hold without panic even in case of intraday rises. Shorts can be covered once near 4000 levels, unless there is a strong reversal sign.

Painful start to July Series...june 27, 2008

The global cues for today are very bad. We will have a gap down opening of around 2 - 3% today. The clearest sign of bearishness came from the FnO rollover yesterday. In spite of more than 1% rise in market yesterday, the puts did not reduce in value and the calls did not move up. NIFTY discount was very high indicating a very high amount of short rollovers. A lot of call writing in the system is a strong indication for a bearish case. Though I expected the short rally to touch around 4350 - 4400 before going down to touch 4000 again, global cues are not helping this cause. It will be interesting to see how market behaves here on. Strongest downside support for today comes at 4080 - 4090 in NIFTY spot.

I am not posting a NIFTY chart today as there is nothing much from an academic perspective. I am posting RCOM chart today. Just to understand the importance of trends. See how RCOM is nicely locked in a proper downtrend. If you see this chart, you will notice that the lower channel support comes around 463 today. 464 level is also a major support. So if we open gap down today and around this level, if we see RCOM stabilizing we can buy this stock with a stop loss below 463 for trading. On the other hand 2 successive closings below this line will give us a new downtrend from the current primary downtrend. This is just one of the readings. We will need to take into account other indicators like RSI and stochastics which are not yet too oversold. Lets see how it plays today...In case you buy RCOM for trading likely target can be 478 (15 rs intraday is very good profits anywayz). Also, keep in mind how NIFTY moves when trading stocks.

The overall trend is pretty difficult to guess today. Its quite possible that we will open low, go more lower and show same late recovery. Its better to go with the trend during the day. No more stock picks for the day, lets watch RCOM and see how it behaves of course market should also support it.

NIFTY outlook and update for June 26, 2008

Yesterday we expected market to open down, rise and then dip again. But contrary to our expectation, market stayed up due to a good amount of short covering. We didn't gain or lose anything though as we stayed away from market. Today again, short covering is expected to continue pushing nifty towards the 4300 mark. Right now, it may be too early to go long on a positional basis. Intraday longs seem ok for today. The broader trend is still down and a test of 4000 is still pending. So trade this market on a day to day basis now and avoid carrying over leveraged positions overnight. Today being FnO expiry day expect good volatility in the market.

STOCK PICKS
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RELIANCE INDUSTRIES (RIL) - CMP 2136. BUY target 2200. SL - 2125

BOMBAY DYEING - CMP 672.9. BUY target 697, 721 SL - 655

Dark Clouds Loom large over Dalal Street

I had to extend my vacation by one more day and could not post yesterday. It was nice though to stay away from market when bears were marauding markets. Maybe it was a missed opportunity on the short side, but market throws so many opportunities that there is nothing called a lost opportunity. Coming to today, I think the picture is pretty clear. Once inflation spooked us last week and we broke 4370, 4000 was definitely coming. Like adding fuel to the fire, RBI has hiked both the CRR and repo rates, a double whammy of sorts. So we should be opening gap down. However, post that it will be interesting to see if we rebound for sometime or just keep going down. I wouldn't suggest that you stay away from rate sensitive sectors like auto, infra or banks. I will say in this market stay away from market itself today. You will do yourself some good. NIFTY is oversold on intraday charts so even if it opens gap down, we should get some recovery rallies. But none of these rallies I think will hold in this market. If 4000 also doesn't hold then one may short and carry for a target of around 3600 (This is an Elliott wave target).

Get your shopping list ready, I think long term investors can make merry buying their favourite shares by buying their shares at a bargain...

Taking Leave...

I am going out on some personal work and wont be posting on monday. I should get back on Tuesday mostly to give updates on action...Markets look frightening now and 4000 seems to be on cards. So be careful and trade accordingly!

cheers!!

Markets spooked by Inflation..

It was carnage on Dalal street today....as soon as a sky high inflation came out, market tanked...a new low has been created now...following days may not be too good...I will post some more updates later....

Market views and updates for june 20, 2008

We had a great day yesterday with all calls hitting targets. World markets are trading quite flat today. On the domestic front, I dont expect much action today as well. It could well be a pretty sluggish day in the market. Market has tested 4500 yesterday, now we could have sideways movement for sometime before heading up or down. Inflation number will be released today. However, in the past few weeks market has seldom reacted to these numbers. Next week is expiry week and I believe until expiry we may not see too much of a fall in this market. A lot of shorts were built in this series and short covering and rollovers may provide support for the time being to the market. Trade lightly!!

STOCK PICKS
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CAIRN - CMP:284.15 BUY this stock on dips around 278 - 279. Targets 284, 289 SL - 275

TATA STEEL - CMP:816.8 BUY on dips around 805-810. Target 825 SL - 798

Markets react from Fibonacci retracements...June 19, 2008

This is something which I missed seeing in yesterday's charts. Probably my eyes were more fixed at the 4700 levels. But post market close I realized that yesterday's high in NIFTY was a 0.382 retracement of the previous downmove. I've marked the retracement for your understanding as well. So what next? We need to now see if 4500 - 4540 levels hold in NIFTY. If it breaks then we will retest earlier lows of 4370 or even break it this time and go down even lower. Until this level is taken out, it may not be too safe to short NIFTY. We have negative cues to start with and quite possibly NIFTY will open at these levels. To an extent we are oversold on intraday charts. So, we should get a bounce after a lower open. Do not short at lows. Wait for highs to short. Today's strategy would be to short at highs and buy in fall. Over the days I have observed that the our stock picks' success rate are down 50% from around 75% previously. So I am going to reduce the number of calls for time being and provide only highly probable ones for a few days now as we fine tune our trading strategies.

STOCK PICKS
RELIANCE call given yesterday still open...shorted at 2350...cover today for 100 points ...good profits here.

for today watch these
SASKEN - This stock has run up in the past few days and is now showing signs of tiring. SHORT sasken below 161 target 151 SL - 165

RELIANCE CAPITAL - CMP 1144. SHORT BELOW 1133 Target 1115, 1080. SL - 1147

Market views June 18, 2008

We managed to close above our first resistance at 4630 yesterday. So we are on course to test our next one at 4730. Near here it will be better to exit all positions once and sit on the sidelines to see where the market is headed next. Currently, it looks like we may resume our downtrend once we reach this level (4730 - 4750). If we take a look at yesterday's rally, its been purely driven by short covering and select buying in banking scrips. So lets be cautious. This rally is still a pullback rally only and not the one to build positional longs. We don't have really encouraging cues to start the day with. We might get a flat opening and maybe move up intraday.

STOCK PICKS
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Yesterday DLF hit our stoploss, RNRL could not sustain above 94 so it wasnt a buy and Infosys and bombay dyeing hit our first targets.

RNRL call is still open. Refer to yesterday's post for levels.

RCOM - CMP: 530.05 SELL target 522. SL - 533

SBI - CMP 1387.5 BUY above 1406 Target 1449 SL - 1400

RELIANCE - CMP 2332. Short around 2350 SL - 2360. Target - 2250, If it manages to break 2350 it will reach 2386 where it will face stiff resistance.

SUZLON - CMP 244.25 Short on rise with SL at 254 for target of 240, 229

Is the market heading up?? June 17, 2008

There is little change from yesterday's view on the overall markets. NIFTY spot made a high of 4617 almost at our 1st target of 4630. Now, looking at the way open interest has changed in NIFTY and the change in futures premium, it does look like the market will test 4700 - 4730 range. One should note that the broader trend is still down. So such rallies should be used to exit and not build fresh long positions. Global cues are flat today. We could be opening flat as well, may test 4540 once and then move up. As of now the bias is slightly positive...a minor uptrend in the broader downtrend.

STOCK PICKS
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DLF - CMP - 492.3. Short around 500 target 492, 487 SL - 505

INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES - CMP 1907.8 BUY above 1915 Target 1925, 1948. SL - 1906

BOMBAY DYEING - CMP 739.8 BUY ABOVE 740 Target - 755, 772 SL - 735

RNRL - CMP 91.2 BUY above 94 Target 98 SL - 93

A quick look at the cues for today, Global markets are positive, crude is cooling off. Technically we have seen reversal patterns in charts for some days now. So the stage is set for target 4630 and max 4730 in the coming days. These are levels where one can book any longs that are being held. There is every chance that once we reach those levels market would reverse again and take a pounding. We will know when we get there. There are lot of shorts built into the system now around 4500 levels so any bounce can also trigger a bout of short covering adding muscle to the rally. On the NIFTY front there is not much of an update so I am not posting a chart today. The major supports and resistances are available in the chart in previous posts.

STOCK PICKS
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NATIONAL ALUMINIUM (NALCO) - CMP 490.95 BUY Target - 505, 513. SL - 488

NAGARJUNA FERTILIZER - CMP 46.65 BUY Target - 50.9 SL - 46

Daily market view...June 13, 2008

As said in these columns few days earlier, the short rally up, is in progress. NIFTY managed to break the barrier at 4540. Now 4600/4700 is probable. I did advise people in my yahoo messenger list to buy calls towards close yesterday. In spite of so many negative cues yesterday markets managed to bounce bank thanks to hammers and morning star on charts. Its a testimony to the fact that technicals work very well. However, please note that the broader trend is still down and all these rallies are relief rallies that will sustain only for a few days. We have an engulfing bull pattern on NIFTY future charts today which is yet another confirmation for a relief rally. So for this brief period stay long hedged with puts. All important levels are posted in the uploaded chart.

STOCKS
RPL - Once again this is part of our success story. Once 174 was crossed, as indicated here(check earlier posts) it went upto 180 straight. Next resistances are at 187 and 192. It has moved up with decent volumes and will continue to rock in this rally.

BANK OF INDIA(BOI) - CMP 269.15. BUY targets 275, 283. SL - 252 (This one's pretty deep)

BOMBAY DYEING - CMP 746.95 BUY targets 755, 795. SL - 738

CHAMBAL FERTILIZER - CMP 83.2 BUY above 84.25. Targets - 85, 87.4

Watch out for Inflation numbers today...

Negative cues and news flood market...June 12, 2008

The US markets tanked again sending a bad cue to all markets world over yet again. So we begin the day where there is a sea of red across the world already. To top it, RBI has hiked the repo rate. So, we have a lot of negatives for the market and hardly any positives. The only positive is on the technical front. NIFTY has formed a morning start candlestick pattern which is a bullish reversal pattern when it occurs in prolonged downtrends like the one we are in now. Yesterday's rally could not break through the resistance at 4530-4540. If we break 4370 on the downside and also close below 4400 we will see 4200 next in the coming days. Given the conditions, we can also expect a bounce from lower levels when markets get oversold for short rallies. Its going to be an exciting day ahead. Lets just hope it doesn't turn out to be a black thursday.

Today rate sensitive sectors like banking stocks and real estate could take a real beating. I am giving some important levels for some stocks, trade accordingly.

ICICI BANK - CMP 741.2 IMPORTANT SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES - 719, 673, 662, 645, 634
SBI - CMP 1314 IMPORTANT SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES - 1285, 1271, 1254, 1228, 1208

Watch IFCI, something brewing in this counter. Stock is slowly moving up against the market. Some accumulation is happening. One of these days, this could explode up. Above 65 this stock is a very strong BUY.

Infosys call given yesterday hasnt hit our stoploss yet. Below 1890, 1860 is a strong support. Once broken it should head to 1800 straight. This is also showing small reversal signs on charts. So lets be cautious and trade as per levels.

A short rally on cards...June 11, 2008

These are very volatile days and there is very little place to hide in this market. One of the sectors which was running up against the market was IT. And now, even IT is showing signs of tiring. In NIFTY, we could have a short rally upto 4600/4700 levels driven by short covering. This will be a purely technical rally driven by oversold conditions. Also, we have 2 hammers in candlestick charts. Hammers when they appear on charts after a prolonged rally signify that the rally is tiring. In this case, the downtrend maybe tiring for a brief moment. Due to extreme volatility, we will still avoid trading NIFTY. Above 4540 NIFTY will try for 4600 levels.

STOCK PICKS
Infosys technologies - CMP 1854. Short on rise around 1890 levels with SL above 1900 for target of 1800. If the stock crosses 1900 with good volumes then it will become a buy.

Neyveli Lignite can be looked at for shorting. Please see yesterday's post for details.

Nagarjuna Fertilizer CMP 42.3, has taken support a lower trendline of a symmetrical triangle and now may try for 46.4 and 50.

RPL has closed above 200 DMA for second consecutive day. Watch this stock above 174.7 can hit 180 straight.

I am posting NIFTY chart here with major supports and resistances.

Scary Markets...June 10, 2008

Yesterday's market was pretty scary but very entertaining for us folks who are sitting on the sidelines and watching. It was a very volatile day of trading where NIFTY swung both above and below 4500 multiple number of times. A new 2008 low was created in market. A base has formed around 4400 now. What is scary is that a number of shorts have been created even in these levels. Now if 4400 breaks on a closing basis, we can short this market for lower targets of 4000 and 3600 possibly. Our shopping list that we created last week can wait for now. We need not rush into buying and wait for clear signs from market. Today again will be an off day for us in NIFTY. We will watch the wild swings from the sidelines till we are clear. (Remember money not lost is money earned. Its very important to preserve our capital first and then make profits...so by not trading couple of days we will do ourselves a lot of good). However, we can look at the below stocks for trading.

STOCK PICKS
RPL - This stock is rallying on back of some news. It has closed above 200 DMA even in a falling market. Lots of longs created in FnO space. BUY RPL today above 172-174.8 resistance areas it can rally upto 180 levels.

NEYVELI LIGNITE - Stock is breaking down from a symmetrical traingle pattern as shown in charts. CMP - 106.4 stock is headed towards 86 levels in the coming days. This is a positional short. Intermediate support at 103 and 100.7

NAGARJUNA FERTILIZER - CMP 39.3 If closes below 38.3 today, short and carry target 35.8, 34.8, 30.9

Market is still looking very weak and bad as of now. Avoid carrying any overnight long positions for sometime.

A make or break day for market....June 09, 2008

Today is a very interesting day in the market. It is so difficult to predict what will happen now. We have very bad global cues to start with. This means market could very well open low and test the supports around 4500. We have two important supports for this market on the lowerside at 4530 - 4540 and lastly 4440. Now these need to be held for any bullish case. There are 2 possibilities here

1. Market bounces off the given supports. In which case, we could have rallies upto 4800+ levels.
2. Market breaks the supports given. This can be disastrous for market as we will go down to 4000 and probably even 3600 then.

Based on FnO data, the indicators are that of a bounce from these levels and not a break. Also, now that the entire mass is bearish, market could very well show who is the king and move in the opposite direction. Again all these are possibilities and this time I do not wish to speculate too much which side it will go and take positions in advance. So today again we will be on the sidelines and see where it is headed. My guess is, it will bounce.

The very small long positions built on friday, (I have a 4700 call only one lot) can be held as long as these supports are held on a closing basis. If there is a good bounce today off supports, then this week we could have a good rally. I haven't posted a chart today as there aren't too many changes as such.

Is it time to buy??...June 06

NIFTY has almost hit all downside targets. All shorts have been exited now and I have no open positions. There was very good short covering once NIFTY hit the support at 4530 given in the post yesterday. The attached chart shows how NIFTY is obeying exactly to the lines we have drawn.(NIFTY levels are also updated in the chart). However, this doesnt seem to be fresh buying yet and only short covering as suggested by open interest change. So we will wait some more time to enter into this market to ensure that this isnt a dead cat bounce. Today inflation numbers will come out and could well be high enough to freak markets. Over the past few weeks, market has ignored these numbers, we will have to wait and see if this will happen today as well. Till then stay out of market. In the afternoon session, we may take up a few longs (very small positions). Do visit the blog again after 3 PM today. I shall try and update if there are some positions that can be taken. The following stocks are looking good for positional longs

1. RPL
2. Hindalco
3. Tata Steel
4. IFCI

I may pick up few calls or longs in these today or next week. NIFTY might open up today, do not buy till inflation numbers are out. Safe buying is only above 4800 (on a closing basis). If market slides below 4630 and closes below this level, better not to BUY at all and go with zero positions into next week.

INTRADAY
IFCI - CMP 61.1 BUY above 62.25 Target 64. SL - 61

P.S: All calls given as intraday, please try to enter only after 10:15. The first 15 minutes, market is usually traded very speculatively resulting in large price swings. It is highly probable that both targets and SL will be hit during this time. So enter into intraday positions after 10:15.

As promised...shopping list...

Here are a list of stocks that are expected to do well either due to fundamental reasons or technical reasons in the short term (1 - 3 months)

1. Reliance Petroleum
2. Bank Of India
3. Hindalco
4. Tata Steel
5. TCS
6. ICICI bank
7. Cairn

Sector wise, IT is rocking is on a good uptrend. Banking stocks have taken a beating in this fall and lot of good stocks like ICICI bank, SBI etc are available now at attractive prices. Metals, aluminium are expected to outperform market (Hindalco is my favourite here). Avoid airline stocks, automobile for sometime.

Over time as other stocks breakout, we will pick them up...Happy shopping!!!

P.S: Do leave a note if you want know about targets for these scrips.

Double digit Inflation?? June 05 2008

Fuel price hike pinches our pockets and is looking now to drive inflation towards and above the double digit mark. So there is more bad news coming in for a market which is already reeling under selling pressure. Selling will continue for today and possibly tomorrow as well. But then...see now everyone is talking about market going down lower...(including our TV analysts :) ) n when this happens you know that the end is around the corner. Yes ready your shopping list now for purchasing in this discount sale. I will try to pick up some good stocks for short term buying and post tonight and over the weekend. However do not rush into buying today itself, its still a short at rise market. Buying can come in from tomorrow or next week as market gets oversold.

I have covered 75% of all NIFTY short positions and the remaining 25% will cover today or tomorrow. I might try to flip long sometime tomorrow. Look out for the post tomorrow to get an update on views. Downside supports are here for your reference, use these levels to book profits in shorts you may hold

4530 - 4540, 4480, 4440-4450(biggest support)

While buying may come in tomorrow, the other scenario could be break of 4440 which will be disastrous for market as we might just go and hit 4000 then. (However this possibility looks bleak as of now). Lets play the waiting game and buy later.

Again play NIFTY for today as individual stocks can still move against market direction. Look at NIFTY chart, I have marked various supports for your understanding..


P.S: If you have benefited through this blog by shorting last week and holding through the fall, just leave a comment. There is nothing to lose for you, and it brings in a dose of satisfaction for all the hardwork put in :)

Short covering helps NIFTY....June 04

We had a good short covering yesterday once NIFTY bounced from the support given yesterday at 4630. Now a lot of shorts have been covered which is good for existing shorts as now fresh shorts will come as market rises. We might get news on oil price hike today as well. This is still a short at rise market and not the one for positional buying. A lot of out of the money puts have been added suggesting market could go down much lower in the times to come. Support comes at 4690 and 4630(strong one). If market shows signs of moving up do not panic, it in all likelyhood would be to shake off weak hearts from the market. 4800 will now act as a strong resistance for any upmove. Above which shorts may have a problem. As long as market stays below that level do not worry if you are short.

P.S: We booked partial shorts yesterday around 4630 levels. Holding remaining. I will add some more shorts at higher level again and hold for 4630 or below. Not posting a chart today as there is no significant change.

INTRADAY CALL
GAIL - CMP 384.7 BUY above 391 Target 405. SL - 383
RELIANCE - CMP 2406. SELL below 2397 Target 2350. SL - 2407

Cheers...we make merry as market crashes....June 03

So finally as mentioned in this column since last week, markets break 4800 and are now looking further south. CHEERS!! There aren't any positive triggers in this market. Oil price hike, news of early elections, high inflation, bad economic data in the US...the list just goes on. All these were early indicators for us. Look the NIFTY charts...even in yesterday's fall market stopped falling exactly at our trendline. Today we might have a gap down opening n open below the trendline if close is below that then we might be starting another minor trend within this major trend. All those holding short along with me since last week, hold it. I am giving major support levels for NIFTY spot watch these for possible reactions in NIFTY...4700, 4670, 4630 (a very important support), 4525 and the last big one at 4440.



For the moment avoid individual stocks and just short nifty on every rise. There is more blood to come. Shorts can hold comfortably for 4500 in NIFTY.

Investors can ready their shopping list now...there is a discount sale going on...a lot of good stocks like SBI, ICICI bank, RCOM even reliance is going to be available cheap. Be ready!!!!

Power your trade...June 02, 2008

To start with we have almost flat global cues. NIFTY has been stuck in the 4950 - 4800 for the entire last week. Today's trading range in NIFTY will be between 4809 - 5020. 4800 - 4809 is a strong support break of which will lead to panic. Market has to come out of its range and show some direction otherwise it will give us very little opportunities to trade.

INTRADAY CALLS
VIJAYA BANK - CMP 47.95. BUY above 48.2 Target 49.8. SL - 47.8
TATA STEEL - CMP 902.8 BUY above 910 Target 925, 945 SL - 898
SHIPPING CORPORATION OF INDIA (SCI) - CMP 281 BUY Target 291, 298 SL - 274
RCOM - CMP 576 BUY above 584 Target 592, 605 SL - 574


POSITIONAL
TCS - CMP 1039.15 BUY TARGET 1100

June series begins....May 30 2008

It was not a great day for me yesterday. My longs got hammered towards the end. However the important thing to note is that NIFTY didnt hit my stoploss which was slightly below 4800. For so many days I have been waiting for 4800 and finally it came (4801 was day low) one day late when I had almost given up. I am happy I was so right in my prediction. As soon as I saw bounce at 4800 I averaged some longs and now my buy price is close to 4800 with stop just below 4800 (this is a risky trade). The shorts that were kept as hedge were very profitable though. Today all longs will be exited for sure and I will add more shorts with very small hedges. Look at the NIFTY chart to see how nicely NIFTY has taken support at 4800. It can't get better than this :-). We will have the pullback today with a maximum target of 5020. However my advise would be not to wait for this target and book all longs at each rise.(maybe around 4900+ itself). Shorts should be added towards close of trading today. Remember next week we might see 4500 in NIFTY so do not forget to short and carry today.

INTRADAY PICKS FOR MAY 30
RCOM - CMP 571 BUY around 571 target 575, 583 SL - 568
NAGARJUNA FERTILIZER - CMP 48.7. Huge resistances at 50.6, 51.6. If these are crossed go long else keep these are stop loss and SHORT.


We will try to concentrate on NIFTY now for today and next week as individual stocks can sometimes outperform the market.

Here comes the expected bounce...Thursday, May 29

Finally the expected bounce comes. Though I am little disappointed that 4800 did not come, market turned around from the support at 4840 itself. It was nevertheless a good exit for shorts and nice profits. I am still holding some light shorts as hedges now. The longs which were taken yesterday will now bear fruit. NIFTY now has a likely target of 5040 in this bounce. Following which we will continue to fall again into next week mostly. So these longs can be held for today or maximum tomorrow. Around the mentioned target, all longs should be squared and fresh shorts can possibly be built. We will take stock when we get there...

INTRADAY PICKS
TATA STEEL - CMP 903.35 BUY above 910, target - 925 SL - 907
TCS - CMP 1009.45. BUY for targets - 1030, 1043 SL - 999
NATIONAL ALUMINIUM - CMP 552.05 BUY target - 559, 570 SL - 539
HINDALCO - CMP - 196.45 BUY above 199 target 206.6 SL - 194
HCL TECHNOLOGIES - CMP - 307.6 BUY targets - 312.2, 316.8, 320

FOLLOW UP ON YESTERDAY'S CALLS
BHEL broke down as expected. BOI hit our targets while ABB and crompton did not perform as expected.

SECTORAL WATCH

All aluminium stocks are looking very very good both technically and fundamentally for short term investment.

IT stocks are looking very good for swing trading now.

Market News...
Nifty goes into settlement day with close to 2 crore shares outstanding in the May series. This is beyond the average 1.43 crore shares with which Nifty went into the settlement day in the last six settlements. What this means is that a huge number of positions are still stuck in the current series and so one can expect fireworks today

ERRATA

In the previous post, I wanted to say market is more uneasy and not the other way around...maybe I should proof read before posting now

Market views...May 28, wednesday

Markets are not moving more uneasy now. The bounce that is expected is still not fully on. It might be a little difficult to play NIFTY now. Yesterday market bounced from the support at 4040. Markets could open flat today. If it cuts yesterdays' low we will get 4800 today where we will get a good exit for our shorts. From 4800 it should rally somewhat. We will look at exiting shorts today and may even flip long in very small quantities. Some market news....

One major investment bank has shorted 1 crore NIFTY contracts in the JUNE series. This bank is a big player and if he has shorted so much...then its for us to be very cautious in longs...

INTRADAY CALLS
ABB - CMP 1004. BUY on dips..TARGET 1045 SL - 988
CROMPTON GREAVES - CMP 245 BUY target - 253
BOI - CMP 304.75 SHORT below 300 TARGET 294 SL - 307

FOLLOW UP ON YESTERDAY'S CALLS
PNB missed our target by 40 paise :). DLF and VOLTAS gave good profits and SL triggered in SAIL

STOCK WATCH - BHEL

On the verge of breaking an important support...remember this is an index heavyweight as well. If it breaks 1645 today it will go below 1600 in no time...

Tuesday, May 27...market views...

NIFTY has formed 3 black crows candlestick pattern which is highly bearish. We were bearish from the first candle itself :-). So the downtrend continues and the anticipated bounce did not come yesterday. It may come today. The bounce may not be too high and could end soon after it starts. I've marked the updated NIFTY chart with the current downtrend. We maintain our first target for NIFTY at 4800. Once this comes we will cover all shorts once and wait for further direction...

INTRADAY PICKS
DLF - DLF - CMP-600 SHORT below 600. target 579, 565. SL - 606
SAIL - CMP 166.8 - SHORT below 165. Target 159. SL - 166.5
PNB - CMP 500.9 - SHORT below 498. Target 487. SL - 502
VOLTAS - CMP 150.5 - SHORT below 149. Target 143, 140. SL - 151

Volatile week ahead...May 26

As said in my previous post, market cracked as expected. 3 cheers to us whoever is following my posts. We are now close to expiry and I expect this week to be a very volatile overall. Global cues are negative and needless to say, we will open gap down. I am planning to close my shorts at opening and will wait for bounce to short again. Market is very weak and we have broken the trendline support as indiciated in the charts. Our immediate target is 4800 below which there is a possibility of testing jan lows. So hold on tightly to your shorts and DO NOT PANIC due to sudden spurts in volatility.

Also remember its always safer to short NIFTY in a falling market rather than individual scrips as they may sometimes outperform market based on news or other external factors or even manipulation.

POSITIONAL CALL
We are already short on NIFTY. Hold shorts for first target of 4800. We will update targets as time progresses. Stop loss 5040(closing basis)

P.S: In a falling market, its safer to short at rise rather than to buy for bounces as market tends to fall faster and rise slower. And when it falls it really hurts...so stay short and do not look for small rallies and lose your money

I havent given calls on individual scrips today, we will concentrate on nifty for a few days as market is going to be a little VIOLENT!!! Mark these words!! You will thank me later :-)

weekend thoughts....TV analysts

The other day I was watching CNBC the usual power breakfast show....I think it was friday morning...many analysts came on including our famous ashwani gujral. I was surprised when I found that most of them advocated BUY on dips in this market and were bullish when clearly market was to go down. I was wondering how many people would be misled by these recommendations and lose a lot of hard earned money. I have lost total trust, if any there was on these analysts so much so that, if they say BUY am sure market will tank and vice versa. Just wanted to caution followers of this blog to be wary of such elements. Also an update on the NIFTY short initiated yesterday, first target is around is around 4800. We can book once here and short again bounce (maybe a 50 point bounce?) and target 4480. As of now yes this low a target looks probable. Of course with time views may change. However, 4480 looks like a reality now...so be cautious if ure long...better exit or atleast hedge with NIFTY shorts......

Intraday update on may 23

Market has broken all supports...positional shorters...short NIFTY and hold for 1 - 2 weeks.. We will track this position and cover this at an appropriate time later...

just wanted to add...that we may have get intermediate bounces..do not panic...more I shall update later

Is market about to crack?....May 23

Yesterday NIFTY stopped falling just at the trendline. Today we may have a bounce. Trading range for NIFTY will be 5020 - 5110. NIFTY is unable to sustain up. Use today's bounce to exit long if any and short around 5100 (if we get there) else around 5070. I have a feeling we are going to see some major correction over the next 2 weeks.

Look at the chart to see how nifty is exactly within our trendline

INTRADAY CALLS
NAGARJUNA FERT - BUY ABOVE 50.15 TARGET 52
RCOM - SELL BELOW 575 TARGET 565, 561
ISPAT - BUY target 37.7
ICICIBANK - SELL AT 890(STRONG RESISTANCE) TARGET 862

FOLLOW UP ON YESTERDAY'S CALLS
It wasnt a great day yesterday. BOI, ESSAROIL we didnt get an entry and IFCI triggerred stoploss. Though IFCI was strong, it was just beaten up by overall negative sentiment.

EVENTS TO WATCH OUT FOR
Today is Inflation friday. Market may remain lacklustre till the numbers are out at 12.

Dow breaks uptrend...May 22nd

Look at the Dow chart...the current uptrend is broken. One more lower close and it will be confirmed. Locally we might also head lower then. If 5000 is broken, then we will see 4800 in the coming days. SHORT NIFTY on close below 5000 for a target of 4800. Today global cues are negative. However if opens too low, do not short.

INTRADAY CALLS
BOI - BUY around 311 (wait for this price) SL - 308. Target - 333
IFCI - BUY above 65 target 70
ESSAROIL - BUY above 266 target 273

FOLLOW UP ON YESTERDAY'S CALLS
HDIL hit our target exactly and came down. Maruti did not move much just made around 815. Still 14 rs intraday profit considering we were long from 801. I am still bearish on TISCO. Though I closed my position yesterday. TISCO above 925 will goto 945. Below 925 supports are at 910, 900, 880, 850. All levels in spot.

Selling coming at every rise...May 21

Yesterday we said if closes above 5150 go long. NIFTY was unable to sustain this level even on an intraday basis. Today's levels to watch out for nifty will be 5040 and 5130. NIFTY is still unable to break the reverse trendline and is facing a sell at every rise. 5000 levels may provide good support for the time being. However, positional longs I think can wait for sometime. I initiated positional short in TISCO around 905 and am holding onto it tightly. I might consider profit booking based on market conditions or hold on. A lot IT stocks are showing resistance for upmove and profit booking. Avoid longs in this sector. Yesterday I advised people on my yahoo list to lighten all long positions and book profits. I guess it is justified now :) looking the weak global cues....

We will watch sterlite industries in the coming days its formed a beautiful reverse head and shoulder (bullish pattern). Based on market direction and further moves I will advise a position in this stock.

INTRADAY CALLS
HDIL - CMP:842.25. BUY on dips target - 867
MARUTI - BUY around 801(wait for this price) target 832
TCS - CMP - 956.1. SHORT below 950 target 930, 922 SL - 960

PERFORMANCE OF YESTERDAY'S CALLS
TISCO short is still being held. Suzlon hit our target. PNB and BOI did not give trading opportunity.

Market view and stock picks....May 20

Attached chart shows how NIFTY reacted from the reverse trendline. For today 5150 will be very critical. A close above this will be very good for the market in the coming days. Bullish confirmation will be on close above 5200. BUY NIFTY if closes above 5150 for a target of 5300.

INTRADAY
BOI - BUY above 364 Target 374
PNB - BUY above 580 Targets 587/592
SUZLON - CMP-307.95 BUY target - 316

POSITIONAL
IDFC - CMP-168.65. Positional BUY target 193
SAIL - CMP 186 BUY - target 205 SL - 184(closing basis)
TISCO is a positional short...refer to my previous post for details.

Pick of the week bonus...bank of india

Nice cup and handle setup on charts...tuesday also happens to be results day for bank of india (BOI)....stock looks good for 400+...can initiate positional long with confirmation of break.

Pick of the week...Tata Steel...SHORT call

I've marked the resistance for TISCO at 900. See how it has been struggling to cross that level. We have recommended short on it from friday itself. I am upgrading that intraday call to a positional SHORT call. More reasons on why TISCO is a short...
1. RSI indicates its overbought
2. Its overbought as per slow and fast stochastic indicator.
3. Finally a huge OI buildup (longs) in may series. We have just 8 more days to expiry, expect a lot of unwinding in this counter....In short....SHORT TISCO....target around 830....

I have a lot of people following this blog now and many have subscribed to it by email. A sincere request even to the subscribers to visit the advertisers on this site, that will help me make this blog free for a long time.

If there are any stocks that you would like me to give views on, drop in a message on the cbox in the corner or buzz me on yahoo....travellin_techie

Upward journey continues....

NIFTY continues its upward journey and slowly negating our uneasiness. However, still be on guard and this market can be considered bullish only above 5200 levels. For today, strongest resistances come at 5150 and 5200. At 5150 NIFTY will meet the reverse trendline indicated in the chart. Positional longs can wait to enter above 5200 for a target of 5400. Also, we are going into a long weekend so there maybe profit booking towards close today. Stay on guard!!!


Short termers can look at investing in hindalco, it has a nice setup on charts. 220 if crossed this stock can fly to 270 in no time.

INTRADAY CALLS
ACC - CMP - 681. BUY target 700,712 SL - 668
HDIL - CMP - 776.4 BUY above 782 target 801 SL - 754
TISCO - CMP - 881.7 SELL around 905 target 888, 875 (This stock is in bullish mode, we will be trading against the trend so you will have to wait patiently for the high to occur and then short).
IL&FS INVESTMART - BUY CMP - 191.55 Target - 199.7 SL - 187
RENUKA SUGAR - CMP 137.45 BUY Target - 142, 146

POSITIONAL
INFOSYS - CMP - 1893.1 BUY 1919, 2000
DLF - CMP - 644.9 BUY target 666, 678 SL - 640

FOLLOW UP ON YESTERDAY'S CALLS
ONGC was perfect, we waited for high, shorted and covered at target 1
ORCHID chemicals hit target 2
TCS target given was 1003 and it made 1002 (thats how close it can get :))

Sometimes I give realtime calls on yahoo messenger. You can mail me at rajiv.babu@gmail.com or add travellin_techie on yahoo for more details.

Trade the breakout: HINDALCO

Hindalco has given good breakout with volumes...buy for short term delivery target 270+

Suspect Upmove

Market moved up yesterday against our expectations and Stop loss triggered in our reliance industries call. I am attaching RIL chart to show how RIL exactly reacted from the upper trendline and stopped moving there.

We will watch this stock today. Though market moved up, the upmove looks suspect. Without lack of any triggers, market seem to be discounting every bad news...is this a bull trap?? Time will tell us. Till trend becomes clearer, we will continue to trade lightly on an intraday basis only.

INTRADAY CALL
ONGC - SHORT around 958, Target 944, 928 SL - 970 (ONGC looks very bearish on charts however its almost in oversold territory now. So wait for upmove and short at higher level)
ORCHID CHEMICALS - CMP - 277 BUY target 282, 288, 299 SL - 273. (282 is strong resistance for orchid. Above 282 this stock can fly)
TCS - CMP 971 BUY targets 995, 1003, 1027 SL - 950

FOLLOW UP on yesterday's calls
RIL hit our stop loss, Andhra bank did not come to our shorting price so we did not trade that counter. Bajaj auto data had some errors (I guess an issue with the data i had downloaded in ami) so we skipped that too.

Trend weakens...May 14

Market is looking very weak now. And the trendline seems to be broken on charts now. One more lower closing with the high below the line will confirm this. Look to exit all longs at every rise. Market is oversold on intraday charts and there maybe a light bounce upto 4970/5000. On the lower side 4914/4900 supports will be decisive. On break of which 4800 will definitely come. So today's mantra SHORT on every rise. Also, one more reason for being bearish now is many of the stocks are more short candidates now as per charts. Overall trend is down.

INTRADAY CALLS
RELIANCE - CMP-2501. SHORT on rise. Target - 2450. SL - 2540
Andhra bank - SELL below 79 target 76. SL - 80.5
bajaj auto - short below 2075 Target 2057, 1994. SL - 2090

FOLLOW UP on yesterday's CALLS
Both bombay dyeing and HDIL hit our targets while SL triggered in RCOM.

Not a great upmove...May 13

Though market held up and closed above 4950, we are not yet very comfortable with it. We will still have a rally upto 5150 levels post which we can expect some down move again. For the moment, we will go long with smaller targets in mind.

POSITIONAL
BUY NIFTY target 5150. SL - 4900 (Closing Basis)

INTRADAY
BOMBAY DYEING - CMP - 924.2. BUY Target - 957, 980
HDIL - CMP - 733. BUY For targets - 749, 755, 780. SL - 717
RCOM - BUY ABOVE 555 Target 566, 573, SL - 543


FOLLOW UP ON YESTERDAY'S CALLS
SATYAM - Both targets achieved
Reliance - Opened below our stoploss hence no trade

Wait for direction....may 12

Today is an important trading day as said in my earlier post. It will let us know if market is poised to move up or crack down in the coming days. Asian markets are marginally down at the time of writing this post. So we may not open below 4950. If this is held, we will see 5050 today which will act as a good resistance. If 4950 is not held, we will slide to 4700 levels in the coming days. So for today, we will wait for confirmation from the market before trading. I have attached NIFTY charts with various studies for your understanding.


Satyam computers - CMP - 474. This stock is looking good on charts and is expected to move up today. BUY above 475, target 483, 489. SL - 462.

Reliance - CMP - 2528. BUY target - 2600. SL - 2510

Weekend updates...US market updates...

Dow jones industrial average akin to nifty is in a very crucial spot again...see the attached chart.

Dow is also at a critical stage now as its down to touch the lower trendline of the current uptrend. If it breaks..........world markets may just follow...if it takes support and starts moving up again, 13400 looks like a likely target. As said in my earlier post, monday will be a crucial day of trading. It will dictate if we trade long or short for the next few days or week.

Weekend Thoughts....

I wanted to let you all guys know that market is now at an interesting make or break situation. Look at the NIFTY chart here...

NIFTY is heading towards a very strong support at 4950. This needs to be protected now for us to remain bullish. If its protected and we move above 5000 - 5100 levels. We will see 5400+ in the coming days. However if market breaks 4950, then all longs should be exited quickly. It will be a bad omen if 4950 is broken on closing basis. We will see another good downtrend from there on. US markets have closed negative yesterday. Now if Asian markets do not fall much, we might open to flat to slightly negative and then move from from here. Monday will be an important trading day. This will decide if we are heading towards 5600 or 4000 levels in the coming days. Lets keep fingers crossed and whichever way market moves we will take the same direction...

There is also a good possibility of a technical bounce here as market is oversold on intraday charts.