Taking Leave...

I am going out on some personal work and wont be posting on monday. I should get back on Tuesday mostly to give updates on action...Markets look frightening now and 4000 seems to be on cards. So be careful and trade accordingly!

cheers!!

Markets spooked by Inflation..

It was carnage on Dalal street today....as soon as a sky high inflation came out, market tanked...a new low has been created now...following days may not be too good...I will post some more updates later....

Market views and updates for june 20, 2008

We had a great day yesterday with all calls hitting targets. World markets are trading quite flat today. On the domestic front, I dont expect much action today as well. It could well be a pretty sluggish day in the market. Market has tested 4500 yesterday, now we could have sideways movement for sometime before heading up or down. Inflation number will be released today. However, in the past few weeks market has seldom reacted to these numbers. Next week is expiry week and I believe until expiry we may not see too much of a fall in this market. A lot of shorts were built in this series and short covering and rollovers may provide support for the time being to the market. Trade lightly!!

STOCK PICKS
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CAIRN - CMP:284.15 BUY this stock on dips around 278 - 279. Targets 284, 289 SL - 275

TATA STEEL - CMP:816.8 BUY on dips around 805-810. Target 825 SL - 798

Markets react from Fibonacci retracements...June 19, 2008

This is something which I missed seeing in yesterday's charts. Probably my eyes were more fixed at the 4700 levels. But post market close I realized that yesterday's high in NIFTY was a 0.382 retracement of the previous downmove. I've marked the retracement for your understanding as well. So what next? We need to now see if 4500 - 4540 levels hold in NIFTY. If it breaks then we will retest earlier lows of 4370 or even break it this time and go down even lower. Until this level is taken out, it may not be too safe to short NIFTY. We have negative cues to start with and quite possibly NIFTY will open at these levels. To an extent we are oversold on intraday charts. So, we should get a bounce after a lower open. Do not short at lows. Wait for highs to short. Today's strategy would be to short at highs and buy in fall. Over the days I have observed that the our stock picks' success rate are down 50% from around 75% previously. So I am going to reduce the number of calls for time being and provide only highly probable ones for a few days now as we fine tune our trading strategies.

STOCK PICKS
RELIANCE call given yesterday still open...shorted at 2350...cover today for 100 points ...good profits here.

for today watch these
SASKEN - This stock has run up in the past few days and is now showing signs of tiring. SHORT sasken below 161 target 151 SL - 165

RELIANCE CAPITAL - CMP 1144. SHORT BELOW 1133 Target 1115, 1080. SL - 1147

Market views June 18, 2008

We managed to close above our first resistance at 4630 yesterday. So we are on course to test our next one at 4730. Near here it will be better to exit all positions once and sit on the sidelines to see where the market is headed next. Currently, it looks like we may resume our downtrend once we reach this level (4730 - 4750). If we take a look at yesterday's rally, its been purely driven by short covering and select buying in banking scrips. So lets be cautious. This rally is still a pullback rally only and not the one to build positional longs. We don't have really encouraging cues to start the day with. We might get a flat opening and maybe move up intraday.

STOCK PICKS
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Yesterday DLF hit our stoploss, RNRL could not sustain above 94 so it wasnt a buy and Infosys and bombay dyeing hit our first targets.

RNRL call is still open. Refer to yesterday's post for levels.

RCOM - CMP: 530.05 SELL target 522. SL - 533

SBI - CMP 1387.5 BUY above 1406 Target 1449 SL - 1400

RELIANCE - CMP 2332. Short around 2350 SL - 2360. Target - 2250, If it manages to break 2350 it will reach 2386 where it will face stiff resistance.

SUZLON - CMP 244.25 Short on rise with SL at 254 for target of 240, 229

Is the market heading up?? June 17, 2008

There is little change from yesterday's view on the overall markets. NIFTY spot made a high of 4617 almost at our 1st target of 4630. Now, looking at the way open interest has changed in NIFTY and the change in futures premium, it does look like the market will test 4700 - 4730 range. One should note that the broader trend is still down. So such rallies should be used to exit and not build fresh long positions. Global cues are flat today. We could be opening flat as well, may test 4540 once and then move up. As of now the bias is slightly positive...a minor uptrend in the broader downtrend.

STOCK PICKS
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DLF - CMP - 492.3. Short around 500 target 492, 487 SL - 505

INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES - CMP 1907.8 BUY above 1915 Target 1925, 1948. SL - 1906

BOMBAY DYEING - CMP 739.8 BUY ABOVE 740 Target - 755, 772 SL - 735

RNRL - CMP 91.2 BUY above 94 Target 98 SL - 93

A quick look at the cues for today, Global markets are positive, crude is cooling off. Technically we have seen reversal patterns in charts for some days now. So the stage is set for target 4630 and max 4730 in the coming days. These are levels where one can book any longs that are being held. There is every chance that once we reach those levels market would reverse again and take a pounding. We will know when we get there. There are lot of shorts built into the system now around 4500 levels so any bounce can also trigger a bout of short covering adding muscle to the rally. On the NIFTY front there is not much of an update so I am not posting a chart today. The major supports and resistances are available in the chart in previous posts.

STOCK PICKS
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NATIONAL ALUMINIUM (NALCO) - CMP 490.95 BUY Target - 505, 513. SL - 488

NAGARJUNA FERTILIZER - CMP 46.65 BUY Target - 50.9 SL - 46