Is a bottom forming now?? July 04, 2008

It was another very profitable day as markets tanked and shorts yielded good profits. But happened was not a gradual sustained selling. It was sell from the word go with very heavy volumes and most of the selling was done in the first 30 mins of trade. In NIFTY fut, 5 min charts, we have 2 possible formations now 1. Descending triangle, 2. Triple bottom. Now both these need confirmation. To start with, upside resistance is at 3930 and downside at 3815 (both future levels). Break of either side, we should see good upmove. So watch for these levels and play accordingly today. We will not play stocks today and concentrate on NIFTY as market needs to first give confirmation of either more down move or an upmove. If NIFTY spot breaks 3800, next major support will be at 3720.

Dont get carried away...July 03, 2008

It paid off to hold onto the longs...I booked good profits and exited comfortably from the market. How often do we see NIFTY climbing up 5% in a single day? We had massive short covering driven rally yesterday. Broader trend is still down and there is no good news in this market so there is no need to be gung-ho and go long now in this market. I would rather short at highs now. We do have a bullish engulfing pattern on charts. However, everything needs confirmation now, uptrend/downtrend. So today wait and watch and build small shorts if possible with some hedges around 4100 levels.

STOCK PICKS
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NEYVELI LIGNITE - CMP 100.45 short on rise near 103 for targets 100.64, 96

STOCK WATCH
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ICICI Bank - CMP 621.05. Stock is approaching the trendline resistance at 635. If unable to cross short near this level with a stop loss just around 640 for target of 620 and 610. The attached image shows how icici is approaching the trendline for people interested in technical analysis

Mad Selling in market....June 02, 2008

It was absolute carnage on Dalal Street yesterday. Technically the stage was set for a bounce but market just kept going down and down after a small intraday bounce. We have a near vertical fall from 4310 to 3870. 400+ on NIFTY without any pullback. When NIFTY was out 4400, we said NIFTY will come to 4000 and then 3600. 4000 came too swiftly and then we expected bounce, but it isn't happening at all. While 3600 is now almost a high probability, bounce can still not be ruled out. I will not be playing the short side, and have still a few longs open. I will hold onto them for a while.

STOCK PICKS
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Yesterday almost all picks hit their targets, except IFCI. For today watch Infosys. Infosys has resisted the fall in this market. Rupee is depreciating and results are around the corner. CMP 1717. BUY on dips target 1732/1743.

AXIS BANK - CMP 593. BUY on dips SL - 584 Target - 610, 620

Stage set for a bounce...july 01, 2008

As we start july, we start off with some positive divergence on charts indicating a short upmove. The market has been witnessing relentless selling. In the first half yesterday, the support level given in these columns held. However, in the later half it was broken and market slided to 4020 levels and managed a close around 4040. NIFTY future has already broken the psychological 4000 mark indicating more pain is left in the system. For today however, I expect a bounce possibly upto the 4100 level. 4060 - 4075 range will now act as a resistance for upmove. On the downside 4015 - 4035 level then 3920 are major supports.

STOCK PICKS
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RELIANCE - CMP: 2095.15. BUY above 2100. Target 2115, 2135, 2150. SL - 2070

NAGARJUNA FERTILIZER - CMP: 35.05. Strong support at 34.9. If it breaks this level and stays below, short it for lower targets of 32.8, 30.9. Do not short above 34.9.

Fertilizer stocks look bearish now. A lot of run up has happened in this counter over the past few days, perhaps profit booking is on..

IFCI - CMP 37.2 , BUY on dips around 36.8 with SL at 36.5 target 38.9

STOCK WATCH
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Watch this stock Neyveli Lignite, it has broken down from a symmetrical triangle but has continuously found support at 103 levels. The day it breaks 103, it will crash heavily. Keep an eye on this counter.

Views and updates - Indian stock market June 30

NIFTY had a sharp fall on friday which was after 2 days of small upswings. Typical bear market characteristics. Rallies up are small and slow and when there is a fall, its steep and quick. Market is likely to find support near the 4000 levels. Psychologically also, this level will be important for this market. For today, we could have a sideways to mildly positive market. If we open low, we could buy nifty for intraday only. Its safer to carry over shorts in this market than longs. Longs if any should be held only on an intraday basis. Up moves will face strong resistance at 4220 level. On the downside, strong support exists at 4080 for today.

STOCK PICKS
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ICICI BANK - CMP 652.15 BUY target 674. SL - 639

For a few days its better to trade light. Positional shorts can hold without panic even in case of intraday rises. Shorts can be covered once near 4000 levels, unless there is a strong reversal sign.