Friday, May 30, 2008

June series begins....May 30 2008


It was not a great day for me yesterday. My longs got hammered towards the end. However the important thing to note is that NIFTY didnt hit my stoploss which was slightly below 4800. For so many days I have been waiting for 4800 and finally it came (4801 was day low) one day late when I had almost given up. I am happy I was so right in my prediction. As soon as I saw bounce at 4800 I averaged some longs and now my buy price is close to 4800 with stop just below 4800 (this is a risky trade). The shorts that were kept as hedge were very profitable though. Today all longs will be exited for sure and I will add more shorts with very small hedges. Look at the NIFTY chart to see how nicely NIFTY has taken support at 4800. It can't get better than this :-). We will have the pullback today with a maximum target of 5020. However my advise would be not to wait for this target and book all longs at each rise.(maybe around 4900+ itself). Shorts should be added towards close of trading today. Remember next week we might see 4500 in NIFTY so do not forget to short and carry today.

INTRADAY PICKS FOR MAY 30
RCOM - CMP 571 BUY around 571 target 575, 583 SL - 568
NAGARJUNA FERTILIZER - CMP 48.7. Huge resistances at 50.6, 51.6. If these are crossed go long else keep these are stop loss and SHORT.


We will try to concentrate on NIFTY now for today and next week as individual stocks can sometimes outperform the market.

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Here comes the expected bounce...Thursday, May 29


Finally the expected bounce comes. Though I am little disappointed that 4800 did not come, market turned around from the support at 4840 itself. It was nevertheless a good exit for shorts and nice profits. I am still holding some light shorts as hedges now. The longs which were taken yesterday will now bear fruit. NIFTY now has a likely target of 5040 in this bounce. Following which we will continue to fall again into next week mostly. So these longs can be held for today or maximum tomorrow. Around the mentioned target, all longs should be squared and fresh shorts can possibly be built. We will take stock when we get there...

INTRADAY PICKS
TATA STEEL - CMP 903.35 BUY above 910, target - 925 SL - 907
TCS - CMP 1009.45. BUY for targets - 1030, 1043 SL - 999
NATIONAL ALUMINIUM - CMP 552.05 BUY target - 559, 570 SL - 539
HINDALCO - CMP - 196.45 BUY above 199 target 206.6 SL - 194
HCL TECHNOLOGIES - CMP - 307.6 BUY targets - 312.2, 316.8, 320

FOLLOW UP ON YESTERDAY'S CALLS
BHEL broke down as expected. BOI hit our targets while ABB and crompton did not perform as expected.

SECTORAL WATCH

All aluminium stocks are looking very very good both technically and fundamentally for short term investment.

IT stocks are looking very good for swing trading now.

Market News...
Nifty goes into settlement day with close to 2 crore shares outstanding in the May series. This is beyond the average 1.43 crore shares with which Nifty went into the settlement day in the last six settlements. What this means is that a huge number of positions are still stuck in the current series and so one can expect fireworks today

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

ERRATA

In the previous post, I wanted to say market is more uneasy and not the other way around...maybe I should proof read before posting now

Market views...May 28, wednesday

Markets are not moving more uneasy now. The bounce that is expected is still not fully on. It might be a little difficult to play NIFTY now. Yesterday market bounced from the support at 4040. Markets could open flat today. If it cuts yesterdays' low we will get 4800 today where we will get a good exit for our shorts. From 4800 it should rally somewhat. We will look at exiting shorts today and may even flip long in very small quantities. Some market news....

One major investment bank has shorted 1 crore NIFTY contracts in the JUNE series. This bank is a big player and if he has shorted so much...then its for us to be very cautious in longs...

INTRADAY CALLS
ABB - CMP 1004. BUY on dips..TARGET 1045 SL - 988
CROMPTON GREAVES - CMP 245 BUY target - 253
BOI - CMP 304.75 SHORT below 300 TARGET 294 SL - 307

FOLLOW UP ON YESTERDAY'S CALLS
PNB missed our target by 40 paise :). DLF and VOLTAS gave good profits and SL triggered in SAIL

STOCK WATCH - BHEL

On the verge of breaking an important support...remember this is an index heavyweight as well. If it breaks 1645 today it will go below 1600 in no time...

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Tuesday, May 27...market views...


NIFTY has formed 3 black crows candlestick pattern which is highly bearish. We were bearish from the first candle itself :-). So the downtrend continues and the anticipated bounce did not come yesterday. It may come today. The bounce may not be too high and could end soon after it starts. I've marked the updated NIFTY chart with the current downtrend. We maintain our first target for NIFTY at 4800. Once this comes we will cover all shorts once and wait for further direction...

INTRADAY PICKS
DLF - DLF - CMP-600 SHORT below 600. target 579, 565. SL - 606
SAIL - CMP 166.8 - SHORT below 165. Target 159. SL - 166.5
PNB - CMP 500.9 - SHORT below 498. Target 487. SL - 502
VOLTAS - CMP 150.5 - SHORT below 149. Target 143, 140. SL - 151

Monday, May 26, 2008

Volatile week ahead...May 26


As said in my previous post, market cracked as expected. 3 cheers to us whoever is following my posts. We are now close to expiry and I expect this week to be a very volatile overall. Global cues are negative and needless to say, we will open gap down. I am planning to close my shorts at opening and will wait for bounce to short again. Market is very weak and we have broken the trendline support as indiciated in the charts. Our immediate target is 4800 below which there is a possibility of testing jan lows. So hold on tightly to your shorts and DO NOT PANIC due to sudden spurts in volatility.

Also remember its always safer to short NIFTY in a falling market rather than individual scrips as they may sometimes outperform market based on news or other external factors or even manipulation.

POSITIONAL CALL
We are already short on NIFTY. Hold shorts for first target of 4800. We will update targets as time progresses. Stop loss 5040(closing basis)

P.S: In a falling market, its safer to short at rise rather than to buy for bounces as market tends to fall faster and rise slower. And when it falls it really hurts...so stay short and do not look for small rallies and lose your money

I havent given calls on individual scrips today, we will concentrate on nifty for a few days as market is going to be a little VIOLENT!!! Mark these words!! You will thank me later :-)