Markets react from Fibonacci retracements...June 19, 2008

This is something which I missed seeing in yesterday's charts. Probably my eyes were more fixed at the 4700 levels. But post market close I realized that yesterday's high in NIFTY was a 0.382 retracement of the previous downmove. I've marked the retracement for your understanding as well. So what next? We need to now see if 4500 - 4540 levels hold in NIFTY. If it breaks then we will retest earlier lows of 4370 or even break it this time and go down even lower. Until this level is taken out, it may not be too safe to short NIFTY. We have negative cues to start with and quite possibly NIFTY will open at these levels. To an extent we are oversold on intraday charts. So, we should get a bounce after a lower open. Do not short at lows. Wait for highs to short. Today's strategy would be to short at highs and buy in fall. Over the days I have observed that the our stock picks' success rate are down 50% from around 75% previously. So I am going to reduce the number of calls for time being and provide only highly probable ones for a few days now as we fine tune our trading strategies.

STOCK PICKS
RELIANCE call given yesterday still open...shorted at 2350...cover today for 100 points ...good profits here.

for today watch these
SASKEN - This stock has run up in the past few days and is now showing signs of tiring. SHORT sasken below 161 target 151 SL - 165

RELIANCE CAPITAL - CMP 1144. SHORT BELOW 1133 Target 1115, 1080. SL - 1147